You know me as a strong advocate (and ex-CEO) of www.irc.fi - IRC-Galleria who has long held the top spot in the finnish youth Internet world and still remains as one of the most active social media sites on the net.
I blogged a detailed entry on their recent-enough statistics in November here:
http://tane.li/2008/irc-galleria-remains-most-active-social-media-net
and more recently compared them to Facebook's Finland network here:
http://tane.li/2009/facebook-finland-network-revealed-irc-galleria-compa...
This time however I have to objectively look at some data and ask the questions:
* Has the growth of IRC-Galleria hit a wall?
* Has it reached its saturation point in Finland?
* Are they suffering from Facebook's success in Finland?
* Is the focus on foreign expansion leaving the domestic site/service lost at sea?
Please note that I haven't been with the company for quite some time now, so I will have to speculate a bit on this.
On 18th of October IRC-Galleria had a big party to celebrate 500K registered + active users. That's only about 3 months 2 weeks ago.
Now they have a userbase of 506484 users. Growing by 6 thousand users in 3.5 months is about less than 2000 users a month - a very dismal figure for a service that has become accustomed to seeing that amount of growth in a week or so.
It seems that IRC-Galleria's growth has slumped by roughly 75% and is currently as little as one fourth of what it used to be - in fact what it has been pretty much throughout the history of the successful site.
Old ancient data that I have shows IRC-Galleria having 283509 users on December 14, 2005.. which would suggest a growth rate of more than 200 (about 207-210) users per day up until they hit 500K in October 2008. Naturally the curve isn't entirely flat like that; towards the more recent years daily user growth has been quite a bit more than that.
The current growth rate ever since hitting 500k has been no more than about 60 users per day or so.
And it looks like it might be slowing down further.
IRC-Galleria's user counter only counts the registered and active users. When people leave the service they almost certainly delete their accounts. Because the whole concept is being built in a way that requires you to be active. Having an inactive account in there is out of the question for many people. Thus every day hundreds of people come in and hundreds get removed from the number, the grand daily total showing currently as modest growth of 60 or so net users per day.
Altogether there has been something like over 2 million accounts created throughout the service's lifetime. Which means that user churn is rather high and some people frequently switch accounts, never complete their registering etc etc. the usual stuff.
Why are the numbers growing so slowly? There might be couple of reasons:
- They have really hit the saturation point. Which I think is rather unlikely. There should be room to go upwards to 750K or ever 1M registered users by making the concept more appealing to older (in this case 30-something) people.
- They are focusing so much on conquering the foreign markets that their primary source of revenue; the domestic service, is left to drift lost at sea. Things such as this are known to happen to companies, and if they do have this going on they would not be the first to make this mistake. Hard to speculate further without much visibility.
- Are people leaving for Facebook? This seems entirely plausible; Facebook has grown "like crazy" in Finland with the kind of numbers IRC-Galleria has never seen. It is somewhat likely that especially the "older" folks in the service are starting to be come less active and switching the primary portion of their usage into Facebook. As far as I know this wasn't yet the case in early fall, but things might have changed over the past few months - as everybody seems to suddenly rush into Facebook. My 18 year old sister is in there. So is my 50+ year old mum. Similar situations seem to be the norm nowdays, with entire families and possibly generations of Finns having their stuff up in Facebook.
Wonder how many of them realize that Facebook has background ties to the CIA (through their venture capital arm, In-Q-Tel) (further reading on that can be found all over the place, for example here.)
Yet still; IRC-Galleria is a giant in the local youth Internet and the activity levels are way high up there far above Facebook.
That's the double-sided sword right there; if your concept requires everyone to be very active, it is very hard to turn it around if people start abandoning it en masse (for any reason) or some other place has more contemporary sex appeal of the hour.
IRC-Galleria got started in December of 2000.. in "Internet years" the service is pretty ancient and not much of the similar sites from 'back in the day' are around anymore. "oh where are the snows of yesteryear?" (some old medival lament).
The only way to survive in a changing world is to change yourself. Perhaps that's what IRC-Galleria needs to face - or we might start to see those tiny growth numbers turn towards the negative territory..
Neil Gaiman was once asked to summarize his truly marvelous and epic masterpiece story The Sandman in once sentence (it is 10+ books long). He said;
"The Lord of Dreams learns that one must change or die, and makes his decision."
Hij roept daartoe op in een reactie op het onlangs verschenen rapport van adviesbureau Ernst & Young.
Hi. My name is Taneli Tikka. This is where I preach what I practice. I'm a
serial entrepreneur and a startup activist of sorts. People usually know me
from my past and present consumer Internet service projects: IRC-Galleria,
Dopplr, Muxlim, StarDoll, RunToShop, Vakuutuskone.com, and a bunch of other stuff. My
"proper" bio is behind this link. Glad to see you here, thanks for browsing
around.
Comments
Anecdotally, I asked my
Mon, 2009-02-02 20:22 — Jon Martin (not verified)Anecdotally, I asked my students (uni students mostly born around '88) how many of them were on IRC and how many on Facebook. None were on IRC and almost all were on Facebook.
I don't see how IRC could compete with Facebook with the over-20s.
My friends...
Mon, 2009-02-02 20:46 — Antti (not verified)I have to agree with Jon. My childhood friends and I (born between 80-84) have all moved from irc-galleria to facebook. We all have accounts in irc-galleria, but no-one uses them actively and no-one has paid account anymore). I would love to know where you get this "almost certainly delete their accounts". Is there something good data behind this or is it just a feeling? Does irc.fi remove unactive accounts?
I have been amazed how little irc.fi has evolved. There is no videos, no audio, no real band accounts... I have waited something big from there for years, but have seen nothing.. just more and more paid advertising profiles and stuff like that. I think irc-galleria has already lost it globally (probably years ago), and they are starting to lose it here in finland too...
How has irc.fi taken of globally? I remember seeing some local versions (if I remember correctly: rus, estonia, germany...), but has any of those gained reasonable user base?
Deleting accounts etc
Mon, 2009-2-02 21:25 – taneliThe assumption that people will almost certainly delete their accounts if they stop actively using the service is based on old (I don't have current) data on how it used to be. IRC-Galleria has been following that metric for years and it showed a strong pattern of being inactive for a while -> deleting your account afterwards. And then possibly returning to the service later.
I am questioning that now however; since it seems that all net service usage is pretty much multi-tasking between services. It seems like the logical assumption that perhaps patterns have changed and people now leave their account to linger on without actively deleting them - after all it's the youth that's the most active, not 20+ "old" people...
IRC-Galleria has always had fundamential problems
Mon, 2009-02-02 21:50 — Karri Saarinen (not verified)It started as a profile gallery for IRC(Internet Relay Chat) users which it still is to this day, but after few years it added this "mainstream" on the side (which became the main population of users).
Problem homever is that IRC-Galleria has always had the IRC on it's name and in it's conscept. Even IRC users are active users and the first to use the service, they're not a huge and profitable democraphic. I belive that focus on keeping things "IRC" is constantly enchanched by founders and management (oldschool irc users).
This has led to it that the product itself is just a profile gallery and sucks in other aspects. It annoying to use and is fallen of the current developments of social and web services. There is almost nothing to do(one gets tired of just commenting friends pretty quickly), and current design and most of the features has been in place like 5years or something.
I really don't see a single reason why would someone use IRC-Galleria over Facebook as their general social service.
Demographics
Mon, 2009-02-02 22:48 — Kristoffer Lawson (not verified)The first point is the core here. IRC-Galleria has a clear age focus right now and that has virtually become saturated. There is little to serve on older audience. It's at the point where actually being there feels somewhat "wrong" for an adult.
Not that that's necessarily the end of the world. That's a fantastic demographic to aim at. However without real, serious international presence this will no longer grow. This has been a concern for some time. There have been attempts at developing international sites but they seem to be operated at arm's length, instead of being concentrated efforts. For instance I have seen no mention of the service in international media. It appears that the hope is for the services to grow organically and without effort, like the original one. I believe this is fundamentally the wrong strategy and each day that it is executed is another day further from any hope of further meaningful growth.
Has been, for me.
Mon, 2009-02-02 23:11 — Reko (not verified)Back in the day when it was launched, it was fun. All were actual IRC-users and so on. Nowadays, not so much. A lot of actual IRC users have deleted their accounts and the rest that are there don't really seem to do much.
IRC Galleria for me was always about commenting people's pictures. The blogs, notes etc. seemed a bit useless and usability-wise I've had a bit of an issue wrapping my finger around what the site offers. The discussions are hard to follow since there's no threading or any kind of structure. It's just a stream of text. I have an account there, but I haven't updated it in a year or so, not really much point putting pictures there unless you just want some weird comments from 15-year olds.
I've never had any old, old friends in IRC Galleria, but I was amazed that about the time when I did my Facebook account, most of my old friends from basic school etc showed up. Now we have pretty much a whole class down there and none of those guys is actually very internet-savvy. I don't use much of the apps of Facebook, but the way the profile is laid down, how easy it is to follow what people are up to and how the groups work, are updated and notifications are sent is just golden.
If IRC-Galleria somehow manages to broaden it's demographic, I'm really amazed. But even now I think it's almost like a slang word for a place where teenagers can hang out. First it was a bit of a joke, but nowadays you hear about if in every bus etc. If it's a teenager, they're talking about their IRC-Galleria chats or pictures.
IRC-Galleria: honest and open focus on teens?
Tue, 2009-2-03 10:46 – taneliAll those comments lead to one direction IMO:
IRC-Galleria should perhaps honestly and openly choose the focus to be solely teenagers. Forget about growth. Forget the talk about expanding the demographic and catering to more mature users.
There's nothing wrong in being the top teenage online media; it's just that you have to honestly be that to the fullest extent.
Teenagers especially know that nothing "quite ok" is enough anymore. Nobody wants to deal with any brand or service that's not leading or one of the best in their category. You have to choose your little hill and then gun and rush everything to be the king of that hill.
Looks like it may boil down to those kinds of choices for IG.
What do you think?
Same effect on Swedish communities
Tue, 2009-02-03 13:34 — Gustav Söderström (not verified)Hi, good post. A few thoughts:
It's worth noting that the Swedish communities LunarStorm and Playahead which have very similar demographics and had about 1 mm and 500k users respectively just over a year ago, have also felt the full force of the "Facebook effect" that hit Sweden last summer and fall, reportedly losing about half their user bases!
While all the above points of analysis on why this is are great, I'd like to add one more that I think is often overlooked and makes a crucial difference, one which is also very hard to overcome for these older communities.
Unlike all the "old school" communities (like LunarStorm, Playahead, IRCGalleria and MySpace), Facebook was one of the first communities to build on REAL identities instead of made up identities/avatars/personas. This culture was intitially fostered and enforced technically by students having to register with their .edu adress (of which you only get one, and which can be checked/verified by your friends). As they grew, this enforcement was removed, but the culture stayed. On Facebook, you are you. Seem obvious today, but I remember clearly it felt pretty alien and strange to put your real name in there a few years ago "Anyone can find me now!?".
Well that's just the point. It turns out real identities make a an SNS vastly more useful for most (but not all) use cases:
1. Social accountability to a real world identity fosters a totally different dialouge that caters to a much wider and older demographic
2. "You" will always be you, and you can grow with your profile, while a faked identity/profile is something you are bound to leave. IMO this is much of Facebooks value and it's potential for longevity and success as the "Internet passport" solution it is aiming at. Something eg MySpace could never do (but LinkedIn could).
3. Real identities, mapped to real emails/phone numbers etc, makes it infinitely much easier to find friends, colleagues and acquantainces, which by definition increases the aggregate network value of the SNS.
IMO, the move from me (and most others) using a faked identity, to me using my real identity while interacting and transacting on the Internet, is by far the most important development of recent web history (much more important than the often technical definition of what Web 2.0 is/was).
So in conclusion, I think that IRCGalleria will unfortunately likely start to loose more ground, like it's swedish counterpars have. They still support a non-facebook use case of more anonymous communication with, and discovery of, non-real-life friends, which that Facebook does not. There is a market for this use case in the teen segment and like previous commenters said, they should focus and go after that. But I'm afraid this use case may only cover 10-30% of IRC Galleria's previous user base's usage, For the remaining 70-90% use cases of communicating with real-life friends, it is a much poorer tool than Facebook. I also intuitively (although there is no proof of this yet), think that it is much more valuable to own a graph of real-life friends, than a graph of virtual friends.
/Gustav
some simple stats
Tue, 2009-02-03 14:13 — Matti Paksula (not verified)I've been monitoring irc-galleria for awhile now:
http://mpa.fi/misc/galtsu_monitor/
(I added new "feature" just two days ago, that's why those first lines are different)
Thanks for the monitor data Matti
Tue, 2009-2-03 15:32 – taneliThanks for posting the link. Useful data. Keep it up!
Crippled when free
Tue, 2009-02-03 18:23 — Eero (not verified)The problem with IRC Galleria has long been that it is very limited when used as a free service. One has to pay (reasonably priced) 10€ each year to gain access to such must-have features as friends list, private messages and better search possibilities.
When compared to the gorilla sized Facebook that is entirely free (when not counting the primary cost; loss of privacy) this feels like very limited service.
Demographics again
Wed, 2009-02-04 01:31 — Kristoffer Lawson (not verified)For the record, I wasn't criticising the demographics. I think that age group is fine. However, to grow, there must now be a serious, concentrated effort on international presence.
Another thing we talked about today: why not use the Habbo link? That has strong international presence and is under the same umbrella, with overlapping demographics, yet there is no apparent link between the two places.
Teenagers grow up
Wed, 2009-02-04 19:55 — Jani Penttinen (not verified)Teens are a difficult demographic. First, they change their minds faster than the older folks and things go out of fashion overnight. Once you're out, it's not easy to make your way back in their minds.
Second, people tend to grow up. You've just secured a majority of the age group, only to realize they are feeling too "old" for the teen site and will stop visiting. You will need to keep feeding in new users from the other end of the pipe, but this is where it gets difficult. You're no longer the only game in town.
Facebook is quite amazingly well made service. It's simple, looks quite boring (for a youth site), but it just plain works. They have a very tight focus and despite a few bad choices over the years they mostly steer to the right direction. You can only survive (and thrive) if you focus on things that make you special.
Good work! Your post/article
Fri, 2009-03-20 03:14 — Zoran (not verified)Good work! Your post/article is an excellent example of why I keep comming back to read your excellent quality content that is forever updated. Thank you!
Excellent article! Thank you
Fri, 2009-03-27 11:05 — Heikki (not verified)Excellent article! Thank you very many.
From a marketers perspective IRC-Galleria *is* a teen site. I think it's a cycle that's hard to shake of: many users belong to certain demographic, and partners and marketers foster this by targeting their advertising or activities mainly to this demographic.
I'm not saying that being the biggest teen media in Finland is negative. IMO it's IRC-Galleria's biggest strenght in the competition.
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