Google in a position to flip over Nokia + Telcos?

I think that Nokia's success is not based on it's high-end models, but in the cheaper easy to use models that are sold to ordinary people, not techies.

When Google's Android phone eventually hits the markets, it will be embrased by early adopters, I'm sure of that. "Crossing the chasm" to late adopter market however takes time, and at the same time Nokia is collecting it's crop from it's successful entry in Asian market.

So I think Nokia will do great even with iPhone and possible Android around, because the disruptiveness of the the latter devices are only effecting the high-end market, while the real money comes from low-cost models. Especially when the global economic near future looks dire.

Did you try to estimate how many euro/dollars Google should make per person per year to make this profitable with good enough margin?

High scale production of mobile phones (even if outsourced), logistics, marketing etc. requires quite a few bucks, and so does buying/building/leasing & maintaining extensive global high-speed mobile network. And one has to remember that people tend to want to swap their phone every now and then (in Finland the average is something like from 2.5 to 3 years).

It's too early to start spinning the numbers, but one can be almost sure that this isn't going to happen overnight. Like Lasse said above, I would say Nokia and Telcos will have globally plenty of time to adapt even if Google would pursue in this area and this model.

I am sure Google would love to see Android running on Nokia devices. Remember that Nokia's strength is in hw, design, and supply network.